The discourse at the site, 


A case in point:

Conflict, Social Change and
To read all or download:

gives us an idea, not only in retrospect (to learn from past social & particular experience) but also for the future, how conflicts in political aspirations as well as social dynamics can as well be exploited, controlled and directed by “intelligence” and power agents; while political forces are mostly blindfolded to be simplistically  engaged in the “presumed” promotions of their “political or national objectives”; whatever welfare that may follow or how far it may be meant good.
A hard fact suggesting that today in any political activity with a noble cause  (the good will is by far NOT sufficient at all), A SOLID” LEADERSHIP” with all facets of maturity and professionalism combined with social expertise, is the most important component of  the dynamics and products of change – change with far-reaching substantial and historical significance! Otherwise any movement signifying some characteristics of “change” may just be a playing object of alien forces employed counter to the objectives of the initials of the substantial change anticipated.


See several papers on the link, to be aware of the substance and employ it in your favor. I.e. Ethiopia!

More on the theme: To understand the process of the past (how the invisible hand ransacked our political process) or contemplate and anticipate the future with awareness to do it better, the follwing paper / you can get hold of the book if you want/  is by all means worth an attentive reading :

Synopsis of the book, by the author:
Third World War
Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
© 1999
ISBN: 0847693481
328 pages

by Monty G. Marshall

By romanticizing the Cold War as a “long peace,” we lose perspective on the full range of conflict dynamics that engulfed the lives and livelihoods of people in the Third World. Episodes of violence and human suffering have increased and spread, encompassing ever more states and social groups. Many regions have seen such a serious deterioration of conditions that “normal” politics are clearly impossible. “Third World War” examines the patterns of political violence throughout the world during the Cold War and analyzes them collectively as conflict processes within the global system. It shows that warfare was not randomly distributed, but was centered on six protracted conflict regions that together accounted for 80 to 90 percent of all forms of political violence during that time–a magnitude of violence that rivals the destruction of the previous two world wars. Through societal theories of identity, conflict, and development dynamics, supported by a broad range of quantitative evidence, the author explores how armed conflict and the politics of insecurity lead to policy changes, arrested development, and, ultimately, state failure. He concludes with policy implications and a brief assessment of the prospects for peace in the global system

Public electronic copy of the book on  Internet:
“This Web page provides access to an electronic copy of the book Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics by Monty G. Marshall (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 1999). The several Adobe Acrobat files listed in the table below provide exact reproductions of the original published text and are citeable as they stand. The book contains a systems analysis of violent conflict within the dynamic context of societal-systems development and the diffusion of insecurity through complex societal networks. The “third world war” is the most recent of the global systemic wars of the twentieth century that have characterized the deconstruction and transformation of the Euro-centric “colonial” global system in the age of complex technological systems, mass communication, and open information. The “Third Word war” plagues the newly independent states of the Third World as they struggle to establish modern, central authority and guide their societies, distorted by years, decades, and, even, centuries of foreign domination, through the enormous challenges and pressures of the Cold War and Globalization Eras. The wars in the Third World are largely domestic conflicts fought primarily by amatuers. The book theorizes a syndrome of pervasive insecurity and arrested development; it documents and explains the spatial patterns of protracted political violence in the aftermath of the Second World War; a period of steadily increasing magnitudes of violence, state failures, and humanitarian crises leading to the end of the Cold War and the beginning of the Globalization Era. Click on the links in the left-hand column in the table below to view or download individual chapters and supporting documents in PDF format; files are readable in Adobe Acrobat Reader.” (My emphasis).

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