The Duet and Quartet Game is coming (Scenario, 16.07.2012)
Unfortunate but true. Modernity has made a village out of the world!
So “let us make it simple but not less simple” (Einstein)
In the interest of their primary concern – “Security”-, Americans & “The West” are pragmatic. Unfortunately they have been determining the outcome of the Ethiopian political “game” at crucial times of Change. In the recent period, Year 1991 & Year 2005 could be mentioned. Look at “The Big Picture” will be the directive of the US & EU to enhance a change in Ethiopia; that is, if at all an imperative happens to emerge to do so. The imperative would come about if they discern the possibility of instability in due course of power transformation after Melese or with a weak Melese in the aftermath of his bad health condition. Americans will not intentionally give room for unknown political variables.
There are political power determinants depending on
1. The Mass base (& if possible legitimacy)
2. Military power
3. Organizational and structural strength
4. Economic base and strength.
Given these basic backdrops, which every section somehow manifests, the following collectives will be considered as the big players to receive their functional roles under all possible administrative intelligence agencies & resources (i.e. man and money):
I. The Duet and, II. The Quartet
I. The Duet consists of
1. Legacy classic EPRDF & Military (+big business) (the no change faction)/EM
2. Local-legal Oppositions at home & Defectors from the EM, Nr. 1 /LO
Call them: EMLO (smile, it hears well)
II. The Quartet consists of
1. Seye (former & reformer EPRDFs) & Military (the reform faction)/S
2. Birtukan & co. (Diaspora & civil /medial organizations other than GO, Nr. 4) /B
3. ENTC (+ small Business section &some old legacy factors) (cf. The “Dallas Collection”)/E
4. Ginbot 7 diaspora; OLF & other Liberation Fronts (cf. The Canada Platform)/GO
Call them: SBEGO
Together, the EMLO-SBEGO, the Duet and Quartet solution will be worked out by the “big“international and local political players. Let us hope it will end up at least in an open democratic space so that Ethiopia could at last find its Peace and political stability for a harmonious economic & cultural development, it long deserved in Africa! – The local players thereby not losing sight of the big picture of our Ethiopian national interest. – I.e. The continuity of the Ethiopian Statehood.
Before the solution, the following months will be full of “The Duet and Quartet games”.
Who are the “big players” and opinion makers in this play? – Individuals & “personalities” on which a lot depends. -The fate of the immediate future of the Ethiopian Nation and State.
BEWARE; without WISDOM and the VISION beyond sectional interests, it is ALL Ethiopians, who will be the losers.
Let us hope that it will be a peaceful game!